In the ever-looming shadow of global pandemics, the recent surge in diphtheria cases in Australia and the rapid spread of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda have sparked fears of another global health crisis. According to Professor Adrian Esterman, the chances of a pandemic as severe as COVID-19 are 'very high', with a one-in-five chance over a decade and a higher likelihood over a lifetime. What makes this situation particularly intriguing, and slightly terrifying, is the unpredictability of the virus that could trigger the next pandemic. While diphtheria and Ebola are concerning in their own right, the H5N1 avian flu strain poses an even greater threat to epidemiologists. This strain has already killed millions of birds and infected other animals, and has even started spreading from animals to humans, with a high human mortality rate. The good news is that there is a vaccine against it, made by an Australian manufacturer, which could be a game-changer if H5N1 were to become the next pandemic. However, Australia's preparedness for future pandemics is a mixed bag. While we have made significant strides in building quarantine stations, a Moderna factory for vaccine production, and stockpiling drugs and equipment, we also have a history of struggling to respond effectively during the COVID-19 pandemic. The 'unprecedented times' forced governments and health authorities to react to a rapidly changing situation, resulting in infected Aussies quarantining in hotels that weren't fit for purpose, lacklustre communication from state governments, and inconsistent lockdown rules and restrictions. If another pandemic were to hit, things would be different. Australia now has its own Centre for Disease Control (CDC), purpose-built quarantine stations, and a Moderna factory that can produce vaccines. We also have some experience managing a pandemic. However, if the next pandemic doesn't hit for 15 years or more, we may have forgotten what we learned during COVID-19. This raises a deeper question: are we training our future experts and leaders to be ready to deal with the next pandemic? It's crucial for COVID-19 learnings to be included in university curricula so future experts and leaders are exposed to them. Australia also needs to continue developing and updating pandemic preparedness plans at national, state, and territory levels, and work on social determinants of health, like access to health services and trust in health authorities. While the risk of another major pandemic in the near future is high, the general public shouldn't lose sleep over it. Instead, they should take steps to protect themselves and others from localised outbreaks of diseases like diphtheria, measles, and syphilis. The CDC spokesperson's words ring true: 'The question is not whether they will occur, but how well-prepared we are when they do.' Strong public health systems, informed communities, and high vaccination coverage remain among our best protections against future health threats. In the face of these challenges, it's essential to remain vigilant, informed, and proactive in our approach to public health. Only then can we hope to be truly prepared for whatever the future may bring.
